机器学习与数据科学博士生系列论坛（第五十二期）—— Conformal Prediction: A Gentle Introduction

摘要：
Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction (a.k.a. conformal inference) is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions.

In this seminar, we follow a recent tutorial, "Conformal Prediction: A Gentle Introduction", to introduce practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more.